نشریه اقتصاد پولی، مالی
پیاپی 21 (بهار و تابستان 1400)

Instability and Volatility in economic growth will cause significant changes in the economy and its variables. Therefore, examining the cause of Volatility and instability in economic growth can eliminate or improve their effectiveness. In this study, using by vector Auto-Regression model, the relation of economic adjustment policies and instability of economic growth during the period 1360 to 1397 have been investigated. For this purpose, the annual fluctuations of economic growth were calculated using the Exponential Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity and the effects of the three policies of privatization, trade liberalization and financial liberalization were measured. The results of this study showed that financial liberalization variables have the lowest (0.6%) and trade liberalization variables have the highest (21%) share on the instability of economic growth. Also, examining the rate of growth instability response to restructuring policies shows that these policies are not compatible with each other so that trade liberalization policy reduces instability and privatization policy increases Economic growth will be stable in the short and long term.

This study aimed to estimate and compare the effect of applying some principles of corporate governance on credit risk of selected private and public banks in Iran during 2011-2018. In the present study, after calculating the credit risk using the Basel Committee's proposed model for each bank, the relationship between shareholder rights and board size as two variables representing corporate governance principles, bank size and return on assets as control variables on the credit risk has been estimated. The results of the study indicate that in both groups of public and private banks, shareholder rights have no significant effect on credit risk. Increasing the size of the board of directors in public banks reduces credit risk more than private banks. Increasing the size of banks increases the credit risk in both groups of public and private banks. In private banks, increase in return on assets reduces credit risk, whereas in public banks, return on assets has no significant effect on credit risk.

The fraud in financial reporting has been raised in recent years and resulted in investor distrust of capital markets.Therefore accurate predicting of earnings manipulation is essential for decision makers of financial statements.In this study Beneish model has been developed using corporate governance variables i.e., audit committee structure، legal inspector and independent auditor، board of director's structure and ownership structure requirements in order to enhance the prediction accuracy of earning manipulation model. The data used in this study are drawn from the annual reports of a sample of 81 non-financial listed companies on TSE over the period 2012-2018 and analyzed by the hybrid multi-layer perceptron (MLP) neural network and cosmology based algorithms i.e., black-hole based optimization (BHBO)، big bang-big crunch (BBBC) and galactic swarm optimization (GSO). The predictive accuracy of the model has been increased from 59.08،63.49 and 57.5 to 87.3،79.72 and 74.25 percentages by MLP-GSO، MLP-BBBC and MLP-BHBO ، respectively. This evidence shows that the predictive power of the model has improved in detecting of earning manipulation. The area under the curve of the BHBO and BB-BC algorithms is covered by the GSO algorithm in the proposed model and resulted in decreased prediction error up to 12.7 percentages by MLP-GSO.

Money transfer mechanism, describes how the economy reacts to a monetary policy. Monetary policy is the most important economic policy of any country. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effectiveness of the role of exchange rate, stock, credit and housing price channels on inflation in the Iran's economy during the period 1978-2017 .For this purpose, , the Auto Regressive Markov Switching Model is used, which has a great ability in terms of structural change. For research data also from inflation, monetary base volume, land price index, stock price index, informal currency and the rest of the facilities granted to the private sector are used and all data is collected from the central bank.The result s of the research indicate that in the one credit regime and in the two channel regime, housing prices and stock price channels have played the most important role in transmitting the effects of money on inflation finally, the Iranian economy is on average 3.63 periods (year) in regime two contracts, which indicates the stability of inflation in regime two in the Iranian economy.

The development of the financial system in all economies is one of the challenging issues that has been raised by economists in different decades. According to the World Economic Forum (2012), financial development refers to the factors, policies, and institutions that lead to efficient financial intermediaries and markets and deep and wide access to capital and financial services. Also, according to the latest report of the forum, creating an efficient, resilient and fair international financial system can support customers and activate savings and investment, which in turn can lead to economic growth and the creation of jobs and businesses in the economy. In fact, the financial system is the cornerstone of economic activities, but during the last decade, important steps have been taken to develop it (World Economic Forum Report, 2019, p. 22).According to the results of previous studies, a higher growth rate can be expected from any country that has a more efficient financial system (Dadgar and Nazari, 2009, p. 2). However, despite much evidence to support the positive impact of financial development on economic growth, there is still no consensus on the relationship between the two. In general, there are two main schools of thought on this subject. Proponents of the first school of thought argue that financial development is essential for economic growth (Goldsmith, 1969; Levin, 1997; and McKinnon, 1973). In contrast, proponents of the second school of thought, who are predominantly neoclassical theorists, argue that the financial sector is not the main driver of growth (Robinson, 1952; Wijnberg, 1983; Buffie, 1984; Lucas, 1988 and Shan, 2005). Among some researchers such as Patrick (1966), the existence of a two-way causal relationship and others such as Singh (1997), Andersen and Tarp (2003), Ayadi et al. (2015) and Ductor and Grechyna (2015), have found an inverse relationship between financial sector development and economic growth.

Indeed, although most empirical studies in this area confirm the positive impact of financial development on economic growth and show a one-way relationship between financial sector development and the real sector of the economy, but by reviewing the existing literature, it can be inferred that the relationship between these two macroeconomic variables is not definite. So, assuming a one-way causal relationship from financial development to economic growth can provide misleading results from the relationship between these two variables. In addition, according to the existing literature, different results on the causal relationship between these two key variables are affected by the pillars of financial development, and among the pillars of financial development, financial stability is one of the most key conditions for maintaining the relationship between financial development and economic growth.Financial stability refers to situations in which financial crises or external shocks do not generally disrupt the core functions of the financial system. This requires a disciplined government with a stable budget structure that can stabilize the macroeconomy and ultimately provide the conditions for financial stability in the economy. It should be noted that the issue of the impact of budgetary stability indicators as a measure of financial stability on the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth is one of the issues that have not been addressed in previous studies. Actually, despite the fact that the relationship between financial development and economic growth has been considered in numerous studies, but the study of how the relationship between these two macroeconomic variables is affected by macroeconomic stability budget indicators has not been considered so far.

Therefore, the purpose of this article is to study the effect of budgetary stability indicators in the expenditure sector on the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth. For this purpose, first considering financial development as a multidimensional index and considering the bank-based financial system in Iran, seven indicators of financial development in the banking sector have been used and then the multidimensional index of financial development using principal component analysis technique (PCA) has been calculated. Then, the causal relationship between the multidimensional index of financial development and economic growth has been analyzed using the bi-variate causality technique based on the vector error correction model (VECM) during the period 1357-1397. Finally, the effect of macroeconomic stability budget indicators on the causal relationship between these two variables has been studied using the tri-variate causality test based on the above model.

The results of our estimation show a one-way causal relationship from financial development to economic growth. The findings also indicate that the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth is affected by budgetary stability indices. Although the ratio of government debt to central bank, government debt to banks and non-bank financial institutions ratio and current expenditure ratio to GDP, have been able to maintain this direct causal relationship, but in other cases the negative significant impact of these indicators on the causal relationship between these two variables has been confirmed. In other words, the main results of this study show that the performance of government in the expenditure sector (except for three of these indicators) has led to the passivity of the financial sector to the real sector of the economy. Among the important reasons for such results are the short time horizon of governments’ plans, lack of serious efforts to reduce dependence on oil revenues due to the existence of high rents for some stakeholders and the lack of use of new financing methods for the budget deficit.

One of the requirements of economic development is financial development or in other words, development of an efficient financial system to finance value-added activities. an efficient financial system is one of the most important determinants of achieving higher economic growth and development. this issue in the iranian economy is due to the high share of the banking system in financing productive activities more than other countries, and therefore the importance of the banking industry with optimal performance is an inevitable necessity to achieve economic development.

the hypothesis of a silent life is expressed by hicks (1935), who shows in his study that firms with market power enjoy a quiet life, and therefore the managers of such firms make no effort to increase the efficiency of the firm. based on the hypothesis of hicks (1935), berger and henan (1989) first examine such a relationship in the banking industry, they show that managers of firms with market power are able to make no effort to improve cost efficiency, earn high profits.
At the heart of filter theory is the fact that when the employer is only aware of whether or not the person being hired has a college degree and no longer has any information about the other characteristics of that person, it is clear that the level of education. it turns out that a college degree will only have the role of distinguishing workers from one another and, in fact, acting as a filter and basis for determining wages, rather than improving the productivity of individuals.

     Considering that the data used by 17 banks for the period of 2018-2019 have been collected, so they have a composite structure and for this reason, stationary is examined first. their significance has been confirmed by the levin-lin chou and im, sons and shin tests. the next step in modeling is to investigate the possibility of heterogeneity between banks using the f-limer test. in addition, the results of the hausmann test show that the fixed effects model is preferable to random effects.

The results of estimation of the models according to different levels of education show that the effect of the adjusted lerner index on profitability is positive and significant. since the increase in the lerner index means an increase in the market power of banks, so the entry of banks and the increase in competition between them in the slang sense implies a decrease in the profitability of banks. on the other hand, the herfindahl-hirschman concentration index has a negative and significant effect on banks 'profitability, and this implies the diversification of banks' income sources in order to optimally distribute risk among different types of income. it should be noted that the ratio of credits to assets has had two-way effects on profitability.

The results of the estimates show that the diversification of banks' revenue sources, the increase in the share of the labor force with a bachelor's degree and the increase in the competitiveness index and, in fact, the market power have increased profitability. However, the increase in the size and share of the labor force with postgraduate and higher education in recent years has reduced the profitability of banks. Therefore, improvement the quality of education, increasing the relationship between the real and financial sectors by reducing the volume of rental activities in the economy and finally monitoring the performance of banks in terms of interest paid on deposits and interest on facilities are among the effective policies to increase banking industry profitability.